Axios Sneak Peek: Biden's econ warriors — NRA's dwindling influence — Looming government shutdown

1 big thing: Biden's econ warriors | Sunday, September 13, 2020

View in browser   Presented By Facebook   Axios Sneak Peek By Hans Nichols ·Sep 13, 2020 Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead from both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops. I'm Hans Nichols, Axios' national politics reporter, filling in for new dad Jonathan Swan. I'll pass on advice I received from my colleague Ed Chen nearly 11 years ago: Sleep when the baby sleeps. We are 51 days away from Election Day. Today's newsletter is 1,516 words, a 6-minute read.     1 big thing: Biden's econ warriors Joe Biden speaks on the state of the U.S. economy, Sept. 4, Wilmington, Delaware. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images   Joe Biden is seeding his advisory boards and transition team with center-left economists and Black and Hispanic leaders as he prepares to confront income inequality and racial disparities exacerbated by the pandemic. Why it matters: The Democratic nominee is signaling that if he wins in November, his administration may pivot away from the pro-Wall Street sentiment that pervades not just Trump's White House, but also permeated Bill Clinton's and Barack Obama's administrations. Biden added two new co-chairs to his economic advisory council over the summer, sources tell Axios: William Spriggs, an economics professor at Howard University and chief economist to the AFL-CIO. Luis Ubiñas, an investor, former president of the Ford Foundation and former McKinsey partner. Biden has already put Big Business on notice that he's serious about a progressive agenda, telling CNN's Jake Tapper last week that, if elected, on "day one," he would begin a push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28%, regardless of the unemployment rate. But, but, but: Advisory councils don't necessarily set policy and Biden has hundreds of outside advisers. In-house advisers still tend to be the last voices in a candidate's ear. The big picture: Many of Biden's current in-house economic advisers watched during the Obama administration as political aides deferred to Wall Street and congressional dealmakers over deficit concerns. They regarded that as a mistake and are determined not to let Biden underspend if he's elected. Jared Bernstein and Ben Harris, both of whom were Biden's chief economic advisers under Obama, are left-of-center economists who consistently pressed for more government stimulus and banking rules in the Obama White House. Biden's policy director Stef Feldman, senior adviser Jake Sullivan and Gene Sperling, who was an NEC director for both Obama and Clinton, advise the former vice president on economic issues on a day-to-day basis. Jeff Zients, Obama's last NEC director and a co-chair of Biden's transition team, is also pulling together a diverse transition roster that includes former aides to some of the party's loudest progressive voices: Gautam Raghavan, chief of staff to Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash). Julie Siegel, who worked in the Obama White House before leaving to help establish the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau with Elizabeth Warren. Cecilia Munoz, Obama's former head of the Domestic Policy Council, who worked at the National Council of La Raza. Felicia Wong, president and CEO of the Roosevelt Institute. The big question: Will Elizabeth Warren join a Biden Cabinet as Treasury secretary or attorney general, or stay in the Senate? From the Senate, she'd effectively hold veto power on Treasury secretary, potentially dashing the hopes of financial services titans like BlackRock's Larry Fink or Centerview Partners' Blair Effron. But she might accept Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who was confirmed 61-31 in 2014 and was Obama's first undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs. Be smart: Warren and Bernie Sanders, not Wall Street, will help Biden decide which economic names get sent to the Senate for confirmation if Biden wins. And progressive economists, more than big bankers, will drive the policy.     2. Bernie: Focus on the economy Sen. Bernie Sanders is urging the Biden campaign to focus more on the economy and not "just go after Trump." Why it matters: Sanders had been privately grousing about the Biden campaign and even urged the campaign to "intensify its focus on pocketbook issues and appeals to liberal voters," according to a Washington Post story that popped on Saturday. In a Sunday interview with MSNBC's Ali Velshi, Sanders denied the report but then said, "I think we need to give people a good reason to vote for Joe Biden." "Joe has some pretty strong positions on the economy, and we need to do a better job of talking about that."  "I think Biden's in an excellent position to win this election," he said. "But I think we've got to do more as a campaign than just go after Trump." The big picture: Biden still maintains a clear lead in most national and battleground polls, with a new Fox News survey giving Biden a 51%-46% overall lead over Trump. But the poll shows voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy by 5 percentage points.     3. NRA's political influence dwindling ahead of the election Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios   The National Rifle Association has spent $9.2 million on political expenditures this cycle, about one-sixth of the $54.4 million reported in 2016, according to Federal Election Commission data tracked by Open Secrets, Axios' Sara Fischer and Alayna Treene report. Why it matters: While the group has vowed to support President Trump's re-election, mounting fees from fights with regulators, internal infighting and the pandemic have devastated its finances — and could mute its future influence. The NRA was once considered one of the most powerful lobbies in American politics. By the numbers: The NRA has spent less than one-fifth on TV ads this year compared to what it spent in 2016, according to data from Advertising Analytics. So far this year, it's spent $4.7 million on TV ads compared with $27.34 million through the end of 2016. It's spent about $3.7 million for online ads this cycle, mostly Facebook and some Google ads, per Advertising Analytics. The group doesn't track digital advertising dating back to 2016. NRA spokesperson Amy Hunter told Axios that given that it's still September, it "wouldn't be fair to compare where we are now with our spending with what we spent total in 2016." To her point, about 56% of the NRA's television ad spend last cycle occurred in October. But according to Advertising Analytics, the group hasn't booked any ads yet for October or November. And it still spent more than $10 million through September 2016. It's spent less than half of that so far through mid-September 2020. The bottom line: To match its huge 2016 outlay for Trump, the NRA would have to massively catch up while triaging plummeting finances and fighting litigation from regulators. Read the full story.     A message from Facebook Facebook supports updated internet regulations     We support updated regulations to set clear rules and hold companies, including Facebook, accountable for: Combating foreign election interference. Protecting people's privacy. Enabling safe and easy data portability between platforms. Read our call for updated internet regulation     4. Government shutdown looms Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios   We're about two weeks away from a government shutdown, as Congress and the White House remain deadlocked in negotiations over another coronavirus relief bill, Alayna reports. The latest: Negotiations between House and Senate leadership and the White House over a continuing resolution are expected to begin in earnest next week when the House returns from recess. Remember this deadline: Midnight on Oct. 1. Details: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi insist there won't be a shutdown. Leaders on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue appear as far apart as ever on coronavirus relief funding, and a stimulus bill before November looks highly unlikely. Both parties are pushing for a "clean" continuing resolution (CR) that would largely maintain current levels of funding for government agencies until some point after the election, Senate Appropriations Chair Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) said last week. "There was an early decision among leadership on the Hill and at the White House not to couple coronavirus relief to the CR talks," a Senate leadership aide told Alayna. "Having that agreement means we'll likely not see a shutdown." Be smart: Election Day may be the saving grace when it comes to averting a shutdown. "A lot of people want to get out of town to campaign and address these types of things in the lame-duck sessions," a GOP congressional source said. Between the lines: Republicans prefer a CR that runs only through December. That could give them more power to push their own priorities if they lose control of the White House. Democrats want the CR to run through January, so that a potential Joe Biden administration could work with them on their priorities.     5. Sneak Peek diary People place flags in the ground outside the Capitol to honor the victims of 9/11. Photo: Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images   The House returns from August recess on Monday, and leadership is expected to meet with the White House to discuss a continuing resolution to keep the government running (see item 4), Alayna writes. The House is also expected to vote on a series of bills, including H. Res. 908, which would formally condemn all forms of anti-Asian sentiment as related to COVID-19; and H.R. 2639, the Strength in Diversity Act. On Monday: The House Oversight and Reform subcommittee will hold a hearing on the U.S. Postal Service. Tuesday: The Senate Judiciary subcommittee will hold a hearing on whether Google has harmed competition in online advertising. Thursday: The House Homeland Security Committee will hold a hearing on global threats, with acting DHS Secretary Chad Wolf, FBI director Christopher Wray and Christopher Miller, director of the National Counterterrorism Center. The Senate is expected to consider the following nominees: Mark Scarsi, Stanley Blumenfeld and John Holcomb as judges for the Central District of California. Todd Robinson as a judge for the Southern District of California. David Dugan and Stephen McGlynn as judges for the Southern District of Illinois. Iain Johnston and Franklin Valderrama as judges for the Northern District of Illinois. On Monday: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will receive a closed briefing on global nuclear threats. Thursday: The House Ways and Means subcommittee meeting on enforcing the ban on imports produced by forced labor in China's Xinjiang region. President Trump's schedule, per a White House official: Monday: Trump will receive a briefing on California wildfires. He will also participate in a Latinos for Trump Coalition Roundtable in Phoenix, Arizona. Tuesday: Trump will host officials from Israel and the United Arab Emirates at the White House to sign their deal normalizing relations. Wednesday: Trump will have a call with Jewish leaders. Later he will have lunch with Vice President Mike Pence and deliver remarks at the National Republican Congressional Committee Battleground Dinner in Washington, D.C. Thursday: Trump will participate in a credentialing ceremony for newly appointed ambassadors to Washington, D.C. Friday: Trump will speak at rallies in Bemidji, Minnesota, and Mosinee, Wisconsin. Bonus: On Monday, Joe Biden will deliver remarks in Wilmington, Delaware, on the ongoing wildfires in the west. Tuesday: Biden will hold a campaign event in Florida. Thursday: Biden will hold a town hall on CNN from Scranton, Pennsylvania.     Bonus: 1 perfect thing Photo: Jonathan Swan   Esther Jane Swan was born Monday, Sept. 7, at 8:31pm, 7 lbs., 8 oz., giving new meaning to Labor Day for Betsy Woodruff Swan. Jonathan tells White House editor Margaret Talev the newborn likes cuddles and "making skeptical facial expressions."     A message from Facebook It's time for updated regulations to promote data portability     We support updated internet regulations to ensure data is safe, portable, and used responsibly. It's why we joined the Data Transfer Project to build a framework that enables people to move data securely between platforms. But there's more to do. 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