Axios AM: Mike's Great 8 — Millions start new businesses — Oh, no! Another ballot pitfall: "awful ovals" — Swan interviews Woodward

1 big thing: America on edge | Saturday, September 26, 2020

View in browser   Presented By the American Investment Council   Axios AM By Mike Allen ·Sep 26, 2020 🌞 Get up! It's Game Day! Today's Smart Brevity™ count: 1,177 words ... 4½ minutes. 🇺🇳We'll be back this afternoon with a Deep Dive on the world order, after the UN General Assembly.     1 big thing: America on edge Louisville on Wednesday. Photo: Jon Cherry/Getty Images   Rarely have national security officials, governors, tech CEOs and activists agreed as broadly and fervently as they do about the possibility of historic civil unrest in America. Why it matters: The ingredients are clear for all to see — epic fights over racism, abortion, elections, the virus and policing, stirred by misinformation and calls to action on social media, at a time of stress over the pandemic. Look across America this week: Portland, Oregon — already suffering from fires and protests — is bracing for a showdown today between right and left wing activists, with "far-right groups from around the country bringing guns, flags, bulletproof vests," the N.Y. Times reports. President Trump was booed — with chants of "Vote him out!" — as he paid respects to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court steps. With today's 5 p.m. Supreme Court announcement, Trump will put America on the cusp of a hardened conservative majority. For the third night in a row, a revived racial-justice movement took to streets across the country to protest the lack of charges against police in the death of Breonna Taylor in Louisville. CNN showed demonstrations from L.A. to Sacramento to Philadelphia to Boston. The bottom line: Everyone from Facebook to YouTube to the U.S. military is taking precautions for post-election civil unrest exploding.     2. 📈 Millions start new businesses in time of virus Madison Schneider (shown with her Grandma Lela) opened Lela's Bakery and Coffeehouse in Haviland, Kan., on Sept. 12. Photo via Facebook The pandemic closed hundreds of thousands of U.S. businesses. But now applications for new businesses are rising at the fastest rate since 2007, The Wall Street Journal's Gwynn Guilford and Charity L. Scott report (subscription): "Applications for the employer identification numbers that entrepreneurs need to start a business have passed 3.2 million so far this year, compared with 2.7 million at the same point in 2019," according to the Census Bureau. Even excluding gig-economy workers and independent contractors, "new filings among a subset of business owners who tend to employ other workers reached 1.1 million through mid-September, a 12% increase over the same period last year and the most since 2007." What's happening: "Spending is picking up as cities and states lift restrictions on everything from restaurants to retailers, leading to a rush of activity that had been on hold," The Journal reports. At the same time, the virus has led to a sustained shift in consumer behavior: "That has wiped out revenue streams for existing businesses, but also opened up new markets for upstarts."     3. The pick: Where Amy Coney Barrett stands Judge Amy Coney Barrett in Milwaukee on Aug. 24, 2018. Photo: Rachel Malehorn via AP Judge Amy Coney Barrett — expected to be named by President Trump today to succeed Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg — would give conservatives a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, and an edge on issues from abortion to presidential power. The big picture: Republicans love the federal appeals court judge's age — she is only 48 — and her record as a steadfast social conservative. Where she stands, from Axios legal editor Sam Baker ... In her academic writings, public appearances and decisions as a judge on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals (based in Chicago; she lives in Indiana), Barrett has staked out conservative positions on a host of huge issues: Health care: She wrote in 2017 that Chief Justice John Roberts betrayed the tenets of conservative legal analysis when he upheld the Affordable Care Act. The law will be back before the court in November. Guns: She said in a dissenting opinion in 2019 that she would have struck down the federal law that bars all felons, including non-violent felons, from owning guns. Immigration: In another dissenting opinion, Barrett voted to let the Trump administration implement rules making it harder for immigrants to get green cards if they're likely to rely on public programs like Medicaid or food stamps. Abortion rights are a massive issue in any Supreme Court confirmation. While Barrett has not ruled directly on abortion, abortion-rights opponents have plenty of good reasons to believe she's on their side: She said all the things nominees always say about honoring precedent during her 7th Circuit confirmation hearings in 2017, and will surely do so again in her Supreme Court confirmation. Barrett, a devout Catholic, has signed public letters describing the "value of human life from conception to natural death" and sharply criticizing the way the Obama administration handled the ACA's contraception mandate. She cast procedural votes on the 7th Circuit that suggested she might have upheld abortion laws that court ultimately struck down. Share this story.     A message from the American Investment Council Private equity never stopped investing in small businesses     Despite a global pandemic and economic uncertainty, private equity invested $252 billion in 1,845 companies in the first half of 2020. Private equity firms are a reliable source of investment and a long-term partner for growth to companies of all shapes and sizes. Learn more.     4. West's fire season starts earlier, lasts longer Front page of today's New York Times This month's wildfires in California, Oregon and Washington add up to the worst fire season on record — over 5 million acres burned, thousands of buildings destroyed and two dozen people killed, the N.Y Times reports. Why it matters: "This season is part of a long-term trend toward more frequent, more devastating fires in the West that shows no sign of slowing down." What's happening: "[O]utdated forest management practices and climate change — which brings hotter, drier conditions — have provided the kindling for infernos of such immense scale," per The Times. Explore the graphics (subscription).     5. Oh, no! Another ballot pitfall: "awful ovals" Photo: Alan Diaz/AP Some of you remember this guy from the "hanging chad" drama of 2000 — Judge Robert Rosenberg of the Broward County (Fla.) canvassing board. We may soon see more scenes like that. We told you yesterday about the "naked ballot" worry in Pennsylvania. (Ballots have to be returned in an envelope inside an envelope.) Now "awful ovals" — poorly filled-in circles — could lead to contested ballots, AP's Christina Cassidy writes: What if you circle a name, or use an X or a checkmark, rather than filling in the oval? Or cross out one oval and then fill in another? What will the humans do? What will the optical scanners do? The bottom line: Voters marking ballots at home could lead to an increase in mistakes that are typically caught at the polling place.     6. Trump warns of post-voting "dispute," wants "friendly transition" Air Force One arrives in Jacksonville on Thursday. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images President Trump, after twice declining to commit to a peaceful transition of power, tells a 9 p.m. "Make America Great Again" rally in Newport News, Va.: That's the only way we're gonna lose is if there's, uh, mischief — mischief, and it'll have to be on a big scale. So be careful. And we do want a very friendly transition. But we don't want to be cheated, and be stupid. Earlier in the day, Trump said in Atlanta: "We may end up in a dispute for a long time, because that's the way they want it. But we're gonna end up winning — that's for sure." P.S. NY. Times Quote of the Day, from "At Pentagon, Fears Grow That Trump Will Pull Military Into Election Unrest" (subscription) ... John Gans, chief speechwriter to the SecDef during the Obama administration: The Pentagon plans for war with Canada and a zombie apocalypse, but they don't want to plan for a contested election. These are huge questions that have an impact on the reputation of the institution.     7. 🎬 Jonathan Swan interviews Bob Woodward Photo: "Axios on HBO"   Coming Monday (11 p.m. ET/PT) on "Axios on HBO" ... Jonathan Swan asks Bob Woodward why he rendered the judgment in "Rage" that President Trump "is the wrong man for the job" — after eschewing such a bottom line for eight previous presidents, including Richard Nixon. Clip: See Woodward's answer.     8. 🏈 1 smile to go: College football snaps to life Via CNN Defending national champion LSU will have about 25,000 fans — 25% capacity of Tiger Stadium — but no tailgating for today's season opener. (ESPN)     A message from the American Investment Council There's nothing small about our commitment to small business     Private equity firms invested in 718 small businesses in the first half of 2020. The background: Overall, they committed $252 billion in just 6 months, supporting jobs across America. Learn more about how private equity is supporting small businesses.   📱 Thanks for making Axios AM part of your weekend. Invite your friends to sign up!   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. 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